The hottest technological innovation may not meet

Technological innovation may not meet the market demand, foldable or just a gust of wind

the two key words of the recent industry fire are folding screen and 5g. Compared with the 5g concept that needs network support, the collapsible screen seems to be more realistic and has become a hot topic in the industry recently

last year, Ruoyu technology announced the launch of the world's leading foldable model, which did not cause much noise at that time. This is related to the small influence of the emerging enterprises of Ruoyu and the immature technology of collapsible screen. Of course, one of the reasons is that the products have not been sold on the market for a long time. However, the situation has changed dramatically this year. Samsung, Huawei, oppo, Xiaomi, LG, Motorola, ZTE, etc. have recently released their own foldable solutions, which has become hot for a time

the foldable market prospect may be overestimated

the most about the foldable prospect is the functional extension brought by the large screen. After expansion, its screen is as large as 7 inches or more, which can become a new office and game tool. In other words, folding is expected to seize the market share of tablet computers through the advantage of portability

after the success of iPad, tablet computers once became popular. Some people even think that just as PC is replaced by notebook, notebook will also be replaced by thinner tablet computers. However, the later development is not the case. Tablet computers are declining because of the large screen, and notebook is still the first choice for business office

however, the market share of tablet computers is not large, and even shrinking. In November, 2018, trendforce reported that global Tablet PC shipments fell by 4.3% in 2018. In August 2018, the data released by strategyanalytics showed that the global tablet Market shipments fell for 14 consecutive quarters. Only Apple's iPad is still growing, and continues to seize the market share of competitors

there are several reasons that hinder the popularity of foldable: 1. The cost has pushed up the price and reduced market demand. According to the current published price, buying a foldable computer is much more expensive than buying a smart + tablet computer of the same grade; 2. Folding brings about the increase of quality and thickness, and the decline of user experience; 3. High operating costs damage efficiency, and each deployment is time-consuming and laborious

compared with the cost factor, I think the decline in user experience and efficiency is the fundamental reason that hinders the popularity of foldability. The cost can usually be reduced by means of economies of scale, experience curves, technological progress, etc., but the decline in user experience and efficiency may be a chronic disease of collapsible solutions

since the prospect is not optimistic, correct data are needed in the experiment. Why can more than 64 million tons of CO2 and SO2 emissions be reduced in China? Many manufacturers are flocking to it

then the question is, since the folding prospect is limited, why are many manufacturers still flocking to it

in recent years, intelligence has gone through the technological trends of light to thin, hifi, strong photography, fast charging, full screen, multi camera and so on. In fact, as a very mature product, technological innovation is becoming more and more difficult. Micro innovation is not enough to make a splash. It can be said that the technical gimmicks in the industry have been exhausted. Driven by the lack of new technology, the collapsible screen, which is different from the current form, is regarded as a treasure by manufacturers. This is very similar to the popularity of shared bicycles by capital under the situation that the o2o Foam Burst and the car Hailing market was established. It's not that the foldable screen is revolutionary, but the technological innovation in the market is temporarily exhausted. The timing of its emergence is really great

secondly, high-profile publicity of foldability may not bring direct sales, but it helps manufacturers establish a high-tech brand image. Investment in research and development of foldable, to some extent, even more cost-effective than large-scale advertising. For example, Ruoyu technology has entered the public eye at one stroke through folding, and Huawei's behavior has also been interpreted by some as a technical muscle show

in addition, foldable has good marketing effect. Just like we media, which pursues hot topics, manufacturers are unwilling to let go of the two biggest keywords this year. Through foldable hot spot marketing, manufacturers can firmly grasp the eyeballs of users, thus promoting the overall growth of their sales

in a word, whether the foldable has a market prospect or not is not important. The important thing is not to miss the focus of the industry and brush the sense of presence in the public users at any time

technological innovation may not meet the market demand. Folding or a gust of wind

there are indeed many technological innovations, which have become the standard configuration of medium and high-end industries after leading the era, such as fast charging, waterproof, multi camera, comprehensive screen, etc. These technological innovations promote the improvement of intelligent functions and performance, making our more powerful and easy to use

however, it must be pointed out that not all technological innovations conform to market needs and user habits. In the early years, Motorola's Yixing system realized no dead call in the world, but it was also defeated by the lower cost GSM technology, and finally ended in bankruptcy. A research group of wireless charging, dual screen, curved screen, and the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) in Moscow has developed a 3D printable polymer lift camera made entirely from biological materials, which once led to innovative technologies. However, due to high costs or poor experience, it has either been left out of the market or become a marginalized niche product

similarly, foldable is inferior to ordinary straight screen and tablet computers in cost and experience, and is destined to be a niche product. In the foreseeable future, it can neither replace the existing straight screen, nor comprehensively replace the tablet computer, nor threaten the business status of notebook

in the future, with the foldable listing and sales, its prospects will gradually become clear because of its actual use. Rational consumers will use practical actions to determine the market positioning for foldability. I personally believe that its users are limited to high-income people who have strong mobile office needs or hobbies for trendy electronic products. More likely, it is just a gust of wind in the market, just like the curved screen, for its home appliance manufacturers to build a safer electricity environment for users

of course, I don't deny the value of flexible screens, but only say that their main use scenarios are not in home appliances, billboards, wearable devices and other special-shaped products. In the future IOT market, flexible screens may shine brightly